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2024 United States Presidential Election

(As of September 22nd)

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Contents

June 2024

June 4 - 5, 2024: 2024 New Jersey Primaries

June 2024

June 4 - 5, 2024: 2024 New Jersey Primaries

Democratic Primaries

U.S. Senate

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Andy Kim: 83%

Patricia Campos-Medina: 17%

Lawrence Hamm: 0%

Sample Size: 6

Results:

Andy Kim: 75%

Patricia Campos-Medina: 16%

Lawrence Hamm: 9%

Total Votes Cast: 480,233

(MoE from Poll: 40%)

District 1

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Donald Norcross: 100%

Sample Size: 4

Results:

Donald Norcross: 98%

Total Votes Cast: 58,131

(MoE from Poll: 49%)

District 2

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Tim Alexander: 80%

Joe Salerno: 20%

Robert Dean Sr.: 0%

Carolyn Rush: 0%

Sample Size: 5

Results:

Joe Salerno: 38%

Tim Alexander: 37%

Carolyn Rush: 21%

Robert Dean Sr.: 3%

Total Votes Cast: 33,533

(MoE from Poll: 44%)

District 3

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Carol Murphy: 57%

Joe Cohn: 29%

Herb Conaway: 14%

Brian Schkeeper: 0%

Sarah Schoengood: 0%

Sample Size: 7

Results:

Herb Conaway: 50%

Carol Murphy: 25%

Joe Cohn: 12%

Sarah Schoengood: 10%

Brian Schkeeper: 3%

Total Votes Cast: 51,191

(MoE from Poll: 37%)

District 4

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Matthew Jenkins: 100%

Sample Size: 4

Results:

Matthew Jenkins: 99%

Total Votes Cast: 24,550

(MoE from Poll: 49%)

District 5

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Josh Gottheimer: 100%

Sample Size: 5

Results:

Josh Gottheimer: 98%

Total Votes Cast: 42,040

(MoE from Poll: 44%)

District 6

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Frank Pallone: 83%

John Hsu: 17%

Sample Size: 6

Results:

Frank Pallone: 84%

John Hsu: 16%

Total Votes Cast: 43,229

(MoE from Poll: 40%)

District 7

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Sue Altman: 100%

Sample Size: 5

Results:

Sue Altman: 100%

Total Votes Cast: 37,716

(MoE from Poll: 44%)

District 8

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Ravi Bhalla: 67%

Rob Menendez: 33%

Kyle Jasey: 0%

Sample Size: 6

Results:

Rob Menendez: 52%

Ravi Bhalla: 38%

Kyle Jasey: 11%

Total Votes Cast: 43,211

(MoE from Poll: 40%)

District 9

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Bill Pascrell: 80%

Mohamed Khairullah: 20%

Sample Size: 5

Results:

Bill Pascrell: 76%

Mohamed Khairullah: 23%

Total Votes Cast: 32,647

(MoE from Poll: 44%)

District 10

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

LaMonica McIver: 100%

Sample Size: 4

Results:

TBD in Special Election

Total Votes Cast: TBD

(MoE from Poll: TBD)

District 11

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Mikie Sherrill: 100%

Mark DeLotto: 0%

Sample Size: 6

Results:

Mikie Sherrill: 93%

Mark DeLotto: 6%

Total Votes Cast: 51,506

(MoE from Poll: 40%)

District 12

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Bonnie Watson Coleman: 100%

Daniel Dart: 0%

Sample Size: 7

Results:

Bonnie Watson Coleman: 87%

Daniel Dart: 13%

Total Votes Cast: 49,245

(MoE from Poll: 37%)

Republican Primaries

U.S. Senate

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Christine Serrano-Glassner: 45%

Justin Murphy: 36%

Curtis Bashaw: 18%

Albert Harshaw: 0%

Sample Size: 11

Results:

Curtis Bashaw: 45%

Christine Serrano-Glassner: 38%

Justin Murphy: 11%

Albert Harshaw: 5%

Total Votes Cast: 307,992

(MoE from Poll: 30%)

District 1

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Damon Galdo: 50%

Claire Gustafson: 50%

Theodore Liddell: 0%

Sample Size: 10

Results:

Theodore Liddell: 47%

Claire Gustafson: 38%

Damon Galdo: 15%

Total Votes Cast: 22,395

(MoE from Poll: 31%)

District 2

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Jeff Van Drew: 100%

Sample Size: 11

Results:

Jeff Van Drew: 100%

Total Votes Cast: 41,778

(MoE from Poll: 30%)

District 3

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Shirley Maia-Cusick: 33%

Michael Faccone: 22%

Rajesh Mohan: 22%

Greg Sobocinski: 22%

Sample Size: 9

Results:

Rajesh Mohan: 38%

Shirley Maia-Cusick: 31%

Michael Faccone: 17%

Greg Sobocinski: 14%

Total Votes Cast: 34,277

(MoE from Poll: 33%)

District 4

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Chris Smith: 80%

David Schmidt: 20%

Sample Size: 10

Results:

Chris Smith: 85%

David Schmidt: 15%

Total Votes Cast: 43,435

(MoE from Poll: 31%)

District 5

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Mary Jo Guinchard: 64%

George Song: 36%

Sample Size: 11

Results:

Mary Jo Guinchard: 69%

George Song: 30%

Total Votes Cast: 30,166

(MoE from Poll: 30%)

District 6

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Gregg Mele: 67%

Scott Fegler: 33%

Sample Size: 9

Results:

Scott Fegler: 82%

Gregg Mele: 18%

Total Votes Cast: 18,655

(MoE from Poll: 33%)

District 7

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Tom Kean Jr.: 55%

Roger Bacon: 45%

Sample Size: 11

Results:

Tom Kean Jr.: 78%

Roger Bacon: 22%

Total Votes Cast: 47,844

(MoE from Poll: 30%)

District 8

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Anthony Valdes: 100%

Sample Size: 10

Results:

Anthony Valdes: 100%

Total Votes Cast: 4,902

(MoE from Poll: 31%)

District 9

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Billy Prempeh: 100%

Hector Castillo: 0%

Sample Size: 11

Results:

Billy Prempeh: 72%

Hector Castillo: 27%

Total Votes Cast: 15,530

(MoE from Poll: 30%)

District 10

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Carmen Bucco: 100%

Sample Size: 10

Results:

Carmen Bucco: 100%

Total Votes Cast: 5,173

(MoE from Poll: 31%)

District 11

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Joseph Belnome: 67%

Raafat Barsoom: 33%

John Sauers: 0%

Sample Size: 10

Results:

Joseph Belnome: 87%

John Sauers: 8%

Raafat Barsoom: 5%

Total Votes Cast: 29,491

(MoE from Poll: 31%)

District 12

Prediction:

(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)

Darius Mayfield: 100%

Thomas Jones Jr.: 0%

Sample Size: 11

Results:

Darius Mayfield: 84%

Thomas Jones Jr.: 16%

Total Votes Cast: 17,482

(MoE from Poll: 30%)

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