ELECTION PREDICTIONS
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June 2024
June 2024
June 4 - 5, 2024: 2024 New Jersey Primaries
June 4 - 5, 2024: 2024 New Jersey Primaries
Democratic Primaries
U.S. Senate
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Andy Kim: 83%
Patricia Campos-Medina: 17%
Lawrence Hamm: 0%
Sample Size: 6
Results:
Andy Kim: 75%
Patricia Campos-Medina: 16%
Lawrence Hamm: 9%
Total Votes Cast: 480,233
(MoE from Poll: 40%)
District 1
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Donald Norcross: 100%
Sample Size: 4
Results:
Donald Norcross: 98%
Total Votes Cast: 58,131
(MoE from Poll: 49%)
District 2
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Tim Alexander: 80%
Joe Salerno: 20%
Robert Dean Sr.: 0%
Carolyn Rush: 0%
Sample Size: 5
Results:
Joe Salerno: 38%
Tim Alexander: 37%
Carolyn Rush: 21%
Robert Dean Sr.: 3%
Total Votes Cast: 33,533
(MoE from Poll: 44%)
District 3
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Carol Murphy: 57%
Joe Cohn: 29%
Herb Conaway: 14%
Brian Schkeeper: 0%
Sarah Schoengood: 0%
Sample Size: 7
Results:
Herb Conaway: 50%
Carol Murphy: 25%
Joe Cohn: 12%
Sarah Schoengood: 10%
Brian Schkeeper: 3%
Total Votes Cast: 51,191
(MoE from Poll: 37%)
District 4
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Matthew Jenkins: 100%
Sample Size: 4
Results:
Matthew Jenkins: 99%
Total Votes Cast: 24,550
(MoE from Poll: 49%)
District 5
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Josh Gottheimer: 100%
Sample Size: 5
Results:
Josh Gottheimer: 98%
Total Votes Cast: 42,040
(MoE from Poll: 44%)
District 6
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Frank Pallone: 83%
John Hsu: 17%
Sample Size: 6
Results:
Frank Pallone: 84%
John Hsu: 16%
Total Votes Cast: 43,229
(MoE from Poll: 40%)
District 7
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Sue Altman: 100%
Sample Size: 5
Results:
Sue Altman: 100%
Total Votes Cast: 37,716
(MoE from Poll: 44%)
District 8
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Ravi Bhalla: 67%
Rob Menendez: 33%
Kyle Jasey: 0%
Sample Size: 6
Results:
Rob Menendez: 52%
Ravi Bhalla: 38%
Kyle Jasey: 11%
Total Votes Cast: 43,211
(MoE from Poll: 40%)
District 9
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Bill Pascrell: 80%
Mohamed Khairullah: 20%
Sample Size: 5
Results:
Bill Pascrell: 76%
Mohamed Khairullah: 23%
Total Votes Cast: 32,647
(MoE from Poll: 44%)
District 10
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
LaMonica McIver: 100%
Sample Size: 4
Results:
TBD in Special Election
Total Votes Cast: TBD
(MoE from Poll: TBD)
District 11
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Mikie Sherrill: 100%
Mark DeLotto: 0%
Sample Size: 6
Results:
Mikie Sherrill: 93%
Mark DeLotto: 6%
Total Votes Cast: 51,506
(MoE from Poll: 40%)
District 12
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Bonnie Watson Coleman: 100%
Daniel Dart: 0%
Sample Size: 7
Results:
Bonnie Watson Coleman: 87%
Daniel Dart: 13%
Total Votes Cast: 49,245
(MoE from Poll: 37%)
Republican Primaries
U.S. Senate
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Christine Serrano-Glassner: 45%
Justin Murphy: 36%
Curtis Bashaw: 18%
Albert Harshaw: 0%
Sample Size: 11
Results:
Curtis Bashaw: 45%
Christine Serrano-Glassner: 38%
Justin Murphy: 11%
Albert Harshaw: 5%
Total Votes Cast: 307,992
(MoE from Poll: 30%)
District 1
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Damon Galdo: 50%
Claire Gustafson: 50%
Theodore Liddell: 0%
Sample Size: 10
Results:
Theodore Liddell: 47%
Claire Gustafson: 38%
Damon Galdo: 15%
Total Votes Cast: 22,395
(MoE from Poll: 31%)
District 2
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Jeff Van Drew: 100%
Sample Size: 11
Results:
Jeff Van Drew: 100%
Total Votes Cast: 41,778
(MoE from Poll: 30%)
District 3
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Shirley Maia-Cusick: 33%
Michael Faccone: 22%
Rajesh Mohan: 22%
Greg Sobocinski: 22%
Sample Size: 9
Results:
Rajesh Mohan: 38%
Shirley Maia-Cusick: 31%
Michael Faccone: 17%
Greg Sobocinski: 14%
Total Votes Cast: 34,277
(MoE from Poll: 33%)
District 4
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Chris Smith: 80%
David Schmidt: 20%
Sample Size: 10
Results:
Chris Smith: 85%
David Schmidt: 15%
Total Votes Cast: 43,435
(MoE from Poll: 31%)
District 5
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Mary Jo Guinchard: 64%
George Song: 36%
Sample Size: 11
Results:
Mary Jo Guinchard: 69%
George Song: 30%
Total Votes Cast: 30,166
(MoE from Poll: 30%)
District 6
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Gregg Mele: 67%
Scott Fegler: 33%
Sample Size: 9
Results:
Scott Fegler: 82%
Gregg Mele: 18%
Total Votes Cast: 18,655
(MoE from Poll: 33%)
District 7
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Tom Kean Jr.: 55%
Roger Bacon: 45%
Sample Size: 11
Results:
Tom Kean Jr.: 78%
Roger Bacon: 22%
Total Votes Cast: 47,844
(MoE from Poll: 30%)
District 8
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Anthony Valdes: 100%
Sample Size: 10
Results:
Anthony Valdes: 100%
Total Votes Cast: 4,902
(MoE from Poll: 31%)
District 9
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Billy Prempeh: 100%
Hector Castillo: 0%
Sample Size: 11
Results:
Billy Prempeh: 72%
Hector Castillo: 27%
Total Votes Cast: 15,530
(MoE from Poll: 30%)
District 10
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Carmen Bucco: 100%
Sample Size: 10
Results:
Carmen Bucco: 100%
Total Votes Cast: 5,173
(MoE from Poll: 31%)
District 11
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Joseph Belnome: 67%
Raafat Barsoom: 33%
John Sauers: 0%
Sample Size: 10
Results:
Joseph Belnome: 87%
John Sauers: 8%
Raafat Barsoom: 5%
Total Votes Cast: 29,491
(MoE from Poll: 31%)
District 12
Prediction:
(Source Used: Nonpartisan Polls - 2024 Congressional Elections Survey)
Darius Mayfield: 100%
Thomas Jones Jr.: 0%
Sample Size: 11
Results:
Darius Mayfield: 84%
Thomas Jones Jr.: 16%
Total Votes Cast: 17,482
(MoE from Poll: 30%)
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